My Yankees Super Sleeper Prospect

Super Sleeper of 2012. Image thanks to BeGreen90 on flickr

This time of year it seems as though the en vogue thing to do is to pick a prospect that few expect to have a good season and predict that they will do just that, placing themselves right on the prospect radar. Yes, it is time to pick a sleeper pick. Admittedly I am a bit late on this one, as everyone and their mother has already chosen Matt Tracy as their this year top 20 next year top 10 prospect. Ten days ago, before all of the ruckus about him, he probably would have been my choice as well. At this point, however, I would not label him a sleeper because so many people know about him, and most are expecting a big season from him. His sleeper status has taken a hit by what he has gained in notoriety. Others, such as Ben Gamel, Nik Turley, Tim Norton, Ramon Flores and Slade Heathcott have also gotten a lot of press.

For my pick, I am going to try to think even further outside the box for what I call my yankees super sleeper prospect. This kid wasn't even on my radar by the end of the season, as is evidenced by his absence on my Top 50 Prospects, but the more I read about him this offseason, the more I regretted that choice. He's already moved up to my top 30-35 (a rough estimate). Another season with improvement like last year and this guy will be on everyone's map, likely a top 20 selection. This pick will surprise even the most knowledgeable of prospect gurus, but then again that is what makes this guy a sleeper. My super sleeper of 2012 is...

Drum roll....  Daniel Lopez!

Now here's what you need to know about Daniel Lopez. Daniel just turned 20 this January, and he'll likely be starting off next season in Staten Island, unless something goes horribly wrong with one of the golden boy prospects that will start the season at Charleston. Then again he played 3 games at the end of 2011 in Charleston, and performed well, so it will be interesting to see what management decides to do with him. He's 6'2, weighing in at 175 lbs according to milb.com. He's from Santiago, Dominican Republic, and he throws and hits right handed.

The main tool that Lopez carries with him is his speed. This is why the Yankees signed him back in 2009. He sported a 60 yard dash of 6.2, and his game will continue to be built around that lightning speed. Since being drafted, Lopez has worked tirelessly to increase his strength and has seen his power numbers increase each season as a result. Thus far, the increase in strength and power has not effected his speed, if anything the opposite if you go by stolen bases. Let's make one thing clear though, Lopez will never be accused of being a power hitter.

His stats won't necessarily jump out at you, but the trends are important to consider. As a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League, he hit .259/.394/.370 in 18 games. He had 2 triples, no homeruns, and 2 stolen bases in 54 at bats. Limited sample size, but the patience is what jumps out at me in his first professional season. In 2010, he improved upon his average and slugging with a .293/.382/.385 triple slash in 70 games. This time he hit 10 doubles, 6 triples, and 1 homerun, stealing 17 bases and being caught stealing 10 times. Not the best rate, but at least he was more aggressive, and his power numbers were better, even if slightly. Lopez's true breakout season, at least thus far in his career, was in 2011 at the age of 19. He started again in the DSL, but only lasted 11 games as he tore through the pitching to the tune of a .424 average. At this point he was promoted to the GCL Yankees, where he continued his torrid play. At the end of the season he got to play 3 games in Charleston. He played extremely well in those 3 games, but alas small sample sizes prevent me from drawing any conclusions from that data. All in all, 2011 saw him hit for a triple slash of .327/.413/.490 over 61 games across three levels. He increased his power numbers with 11 doubles, 7 triples, and 3 homeruns. He stole 27 bases and was caught just 3 times. His OPS was .904.

Reports would indicate he is a strong defender with an average arm and excellent speed and route taking.

Better yet, as gaudy as these numbers may seem, he flew almost completely under the radar in 2011 because of a star studded class of players in the GCL. Reports indicate that Lopez is an extremely hard worker, and spends countless hours lifting and in the cages. So far, this hard work has payed real dividends, and given his athleticism I will not be among those in the blogosphere who ignore this kid.

As far as his projection goes, his speed, patience, and still young age will allow him to have a high floor. I believe he will be on a 25 man roster at some point in his career, and barring injury I am relatively confident about that. His ceiling is that of a 15 HR, 50 SB center fielder, although the 15 homeruns seems pretty generous at this point. Remember though, he has a projectable frame at 6'2 and still has lots of room to fill out at just 175 lbs. We are talking about ceiling here, which means that maximum potential he could ever reach, so I'm allowed to be lofty. He's gotten progressively better every season in every way, getting more powerful, hitting for a higher average, becoming more patient, and reading pitchers better. I see no reason why this trend will not continue as long as he continues to put the work in during the offseason. I understand that getting excited over GCL numbers presents a ton of problems, however this is why he is a sleeper.

 Thus, Daniel Lopez is my super sleeper pick for 2012.

Four in Keith Law's top 100

Mason Williams ranked #34 on Law's list. Image thanks to bronxbaseballdaily.com

23. Banuelos
34. Mason Williams
55. Gary Sanchez
83. Dellin Betances

Notably, Jesus Montero was #9 and Gerrit Cole was #10.

As far as the Yankees organizational top 10, Keith Law had the Yankees ranked as follows.

1. Banuelos
2. Mason Williams
3. Gary Sanchez
4. Dellin Betances
5. Tyler Austin
6. Jose Campos
7.  Dante Bichette Jr.
8. Austin Romine
9. JR Murphy
10. Slade Heathcott

There are a couple of surprises with his rankings. First of all, Mason Williams ahead of both Gary Sanchez and Dellin Betances. He believes the only component of Mason Williams' game that is missing is strength, and that this will come with time. I can understand that view, but I think throwing him right to #34 was excessive. If he slumps this year he'll be out of the top 100, and then his ranking this year looks pretty bad. I'll say this, I think it is a bold move and I give him credit for that. This is easily the highest Mason Williams will be ranked by anyone.

The next surprise was Dellin Betances all the way down at #83. Law basically makes the argument that Betances is a reliever long term. Seems to be the consensus amongst a lot of scouts, and at 23 you have to start asking the question of whether or not he'll ever get the control he needs to be a starter. This year, however, he won't be restricted to 5 innings per start, so hopefully he'll be able to get in more of a groove. I do think that scouts underestimate his ability to find his delivery in the middle of a game after he's lost it. In fact, I've read several accounts that have had him finding his delivery mid-inning, or even mid at bat. I still have faith that Betances could find himself in the rotation, but Law is right about one thing. He needs to find his control and he needs to do it soon, or he'll be sent to the bullpen.

The third surprise was that Tyler Austin came in at #5. There hasn't been anyone who has ranked him that high yet. He's a solid hitter but he has more question marks than some of the people deeper on this list. For example, even Bichette Jr. is closer to having a position. JR Murphy has the hit tool to go along with the ability to play many positions, not to mention the fact that he has already developed some power. Another bold ranking, which I again don't necessarily agree with but give him a lot of credit for sticking his neck out on this one. That is more than most scouts are willing to do.

Finally, it was surprising not to see Ravel Santana in the top 10. I will assume that this is because of the gruesome ankle injury he suffered last year. If Law had done his homework, however, he'd have realized that by all accounts Santana's ankle is almost fully healed, and he's already running around on it with the same cannon that was strapped to his arm last season.

Anyway, kudos to Keith Law for keeping it real and going with his own gut on these rankings instead of the general perception of the scouting community. To quote Daniel Tosh, "for that, we thank you."

Movers and Shakers: Promotions/demotions in the Yankees minors

 Sorry Ivan Nova, you've got a right to be a big annoyed with your demotion, but it'll be good for you in the long run dude... image thanks to espn.com

AAA

Shaeffer Hall was called up to AAA for 1 start. He did a nice job. Given that it was a spot start, I don't think it matters whether he deserved the temporary promotion or not, but he has in fact done a good job for AA this season.

Buddy Carlyle was outrighted to AAA SWB. This is really not news. Sorry.

Ivan Nova was optioned to AAA SWB due to the return of Phil Hughes. He did a great job in the big leagues. If I had it my way, Freddy Garcia would have gone to the bullpen, but Nova will have the chance to become more than a 2 pitch guy if he can work on his change-up while in SWB.

Kevin Whelan also optioned to AAA. He's injured anyway, but has done a great job in SWB this season. He deserved the promotion to the majors, but belongs in the minors when he returns from the injury.

Chris Dickerson also demoted to AAA.

AA

F Hernandez (NOT Felix) was released. Not surprising since he is garbage.

Ryan Pope was sent to AA Trenton from SWB. He was struggling a bit there, maybe he can reinvigorate himself at the level where he originally found himself as a relief pitcher.

Chase Whitley was promoted to AA. He's done a decent job so far. Had a rough first outing, but has done well since then (4.26 ERA, 6 K in 6.1 IP).

Josh Romanski to AA. The bromance as I call him, he has no runs and 3 K in 3.1 IP. Considering we got him for literally nothing, he is turning into a really solid relief prospect.

Rob Lyerly (R-Ly) was also promoted to AA. He really deserved it. I have been preaching all year long about this guy's ability to make contact. If he starts gaining some power, he will be a dangerous hitter. He has proven that he deserved the promotion so far. .305/.359/.783, 1 HR, 9 RBI in 15 g.

High A Tampa

Daniel Burawa was promoted to High A. In limited action he has performed poorly. 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Honestly didn't feel he was ready for High A. In Low A Charleston, he had a 3.64 ERA and 35 K in 44.2 IP. That's good but in my opinion that's end of the season promotion good, not midseason promotion good. We'll see how he adjusts the rest of the season, it's a small sample size in High A so far.

Mike Gipson was also promoted to High A. He's been injured all season, but was listed on Low A Charleston at the beginning of the year, so this is a promotion. Don't have much to say about this except that he was good in Staten Island last season and I've been excited to see how he does all season.

Mikey O'brien also came from Charleston. He pitched great there, 68 K in 72.1 IP and a 3.2 ERA. He had a shaky first start, but since then has been great after the promotion. Definitely deserved this.

Nik Turley is another former River Dog, and this promotion has been a long time coming. He's been beastly in Low A, easily their best pitcher. He had a rough first start, but that's to be expected with a promotion.

Kramer Sneed, left handed relief pitcher. This promotion is one that I didn't understand, and so far I've been proven right. Sneed had a 4.18 ERA in Low A. He is left handed though, and stikes out more than 1/IP, so I guess the old addage, "he's left handed and he has a pulse," is accurate in this scenario.

JR Murphy, the catcher. I can't say enough about how much this kid deserved to be promoted. He was raking in Charleston, and outplaying Gary Sanchez at that level. He's young and he's got a sweet left handed swing. Yet another catcher to look out for in our system. With Gary Sanchez's fall from grace this season, he has eased that blow a little bit. He's struggled out of the gait, but seems to be easing into his role and improving every day, which is what you like to see.

Kyle Roller also deserved the promotion. They picked him for his bat, and he's done nothing but hit since he arrived here. He's got power, and should continue to move quickly through the organization at least until he starts seeing some real quality pitchers in AA. From there, anything can happen. He's played serviceably since arriving in Tampa (.250), but he'll have to continue to improve at this level.

Rob Segedin is another power hitting corner IF who deserved a promotion. I've had him and Roller paired together as similar players since the beginning of the season, and they have played very similarly. Segedin deserved his promotion, but has started off slow (.196) since his promotion. He's got some work to do.

Finally, Slade Heathcott earned a promotion to High A as well. Unfortunately, he has only played in 1 g since arriving due to injuries, however that game was an epic one for him. He was 3/5 with a HR and 2 R. There was speculation that he was bored in Charleston, but I have my doubts. I'm looking forward to his return.

Low A Charleston

Mark Montgomery made the quick move from Staten Island. So far he's shown why. So far he has made all but 2 of his outs by strikeout. He has 3 IP, and 9 K. Actually had 5 K in his first inning. I'd say he deserved a promotion, because he must be absolutely blowing batters away.

Kyle Higashioka moved in the wrong direction, going from High A to Charleston. The funny thing is, people have been talking about how good this kid is for about 3 years now, and I've never been impressed since he has proven over and over that he can't hit. Each year, however, he is promoted. Here's the funny part, he recently had really started to swing the bat well at High A Tampa, hitting a couple of HR in the week before the demotion, and hitting so well to the point that I actually feel he didn't deserve the demotion. Either way, he's in Charleston now, and has continued to hit better than he ever has before in his career (.279, 1 HR, 5 RBI). I actually feel bad for this kid, but the bottom line is that if he continues to hit, he will change minds. Just look at JR Murphy.

Now for the snubs. Who should have been promoted that wasn't? Or at least should be promoted soon. First of all, Dellin Betances should be promoted soon. He's very close. His main issue is control, but with the way that he has dominated AA batters, it hasn't mattered. There's no reason he can't work on that control in AAA. As for Austin Romine, I'm not saying he should be promoted, but he would be in AAA in any other system right now. I'm okay with it because Montero is a stud, but this kid has got to be getting bored there even though his playing quite well still. I still maintain that Raymond Kruml should have been promoted instead of Austin Krum to AAA. He's got better speed, and he's a better hitter. He has 29 SB already. If nothing else, he'd probably be great to have in the majors as a pinch runner in September. 

You might say that Zoilo Almonte should have been promoted to AA. I think we should give him time. He struggled a bit when he was promoted to High A in the middle of last season, decreasing his prospect stock. I say let him improve his stock in High A, this way he could be used as trade fodder this off-season or if nothing else build up some confidence. Increased prospect stock is never a bad thing. Jairo Heredia has been phenomenal, but only recently. He's another I'm glad they kept down because he has traditionally struggled with promotions. Let him get a true grasp on High A before giving him a new challenge. Ryan Flannery is the one snub at this level I disagree with. The guy has slowly moved up one level a year, each year dominating the level he's at. He's not getting any younger and yet there doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency in promoting him. Based on his picture he looks a bit obese, but hell, if you drafted him, then you thought he had something at some point. All he's done is prove that he can get guys out since he came here, I say give him a mid-season promotion for once in his career. Finally, I am not seeing any obvious snubs in Charleston, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Overall, I think the Yankees did a good job evaluating who deserved a promotion and who didn't. I think there were a couple of mistakes as far as guys who didn't deserve a promotion, and a few where they probably should be promoted soon or should have already received that recognition. In the end, they will get their chance eventually.

Lower Level Outfielders

There isn't much in AAA or AA in the Yankees system as far as OF go. Most are either organizational filler, 4th OF ceilings, or just don't have much of a future. Some may sniff the major leagues as a 4th OF or fill in for an injured player, like Golson, Brewer, but are unlikely to stick on any team. We have about 12 kids I'm excited about in the lower levels (High A to GCL). I'm going to list them in order and say why I'm excited and why I have each of them in this position.

1. Slade Heathcott- He's 20. obvious choice as our 1st round draft pick, but this season he has really performed well when not injured. He has shown some improvement with SB and power, but has struggled to stay healthy. He is definitely an outstanding defender, but the key is going to be keeping that shoulder healthy so he will still have a cannon if/when he reaches the major leagues. The Yankees drafted him as a project, someone who they knew would require a year or so of learning and practice before starting to pay dividends. We are starting to see a return on him, and hopefully he continues to improve.

2. Mason Williams-19 yo only in short season A with SI this year, but he's already making a splash with his speed and power. He was a signability guy in the 5th round last season, so we got him later than we should have, and we got a young player whom we can groove in whatever way we'd like. The speed and power are promising, as is his fielding. He is better sooner than Heathcott was, but Heathcott started his second season in Charleston, so it's a little different.

3. Ravel Santana- 19 yo I don't know much about him, but I know he's an international signing who lead the DSL in HR (10) and SB (22) last season. Apparently scouts say he has 80 power and 80 speed. That's one hell of a prospect if he can put it all together. That's a big if though and we've seen how guys like this can fail with Kelvin De Leon and Melky Mesa. He's in the GCL this season.

4. Ramon Flores- Another 19 yo. In Low A, he has shown an advanced approach at the plate. He has cooled down with his average and power, but continues to draw walks. This advanced approach could get him far, but he's going to need to keep improving his power numbers, and hit for a better average than he has so far this season... .254/.373/.399/.772

5. Zoilo Almonte- 22 yo. He's in high A, probably close to a AA promotion if his current hot streak continues. He had a similar hot streak at the same time last season, but it came to a halt when he was promoted to high A. This season, however, he has almost as many HR in less than 1/2 the games of last season. He also has stolen bases at a higher rate, and has similar OBP and avg tendencies, but is striking out at a lower rate for sure. He's OPSing at .869. 22 yo in High A is a red flag though.

6. Yeicok Calderon- 19 yo.He has solid power (8 HR in DSL last season), and hits for a solid avg, but it remains to be seen if these skills will transfer stateside. So far, so good .278/.350/.666/1.07 in very limited sample size, 2 HR and 2 SB as well.

7. Eduardo Sosa- Venezuela- 20 yo in low A with a lot of speed and an advanced approach at the plate. Strikes out too much but also draws a lot of walks and knows how to get on base. 10 SB in 11 attempts. Not much power.

8. Jorge Alcantara- 19 yo in GCL- showed an advanced approach in the DSL. Has showed some power and a good approach in the GCL so far. He'll likely see a lot of time in the OF since Bichette is the 3B there. Definitely a guy to watch. .433 OBP in the DSL last season.

9. Ben Gamel- 19 yo. have read a lot about his potential, it's not as high as some of the others but some project him as a solid OF. Enough to dream on a bit I suppose. Jury's still out.

10. Angelo Gumbs- still 18. Hasn't had much success so far, and has mostly played SS, but projects as a 2B/OF. We will see what this kid has to offer, he's a 2nd round pick so he could be good. Has shown a good amount of speed so far, hopefully getting some experience under his belt will help.

11. Shane Brown- 23 yo in SI. Realistically he shouldn't be on this list but he has started off really hot this season (1 HR, .375/.464/.542/1.006), so I put him on here as an outside chance, eg. a Neil Medchill/D'eangelo Mack type who are unlikely to pan out.

12. Henry Pena- 20 yo, GCL- almost didn't put him on the list, but I'll wait till he comes back to pass judgment. I've heard good things but haven't seen any come to fruition.

Long shots/honorable mention- Cody Grice (I liked this pick), Abe Almonte (has been hot lately, maybe his found it, doubt it), and Melky Mesa (severe regression this year)

Yankees Prospects Blog introduction

My name is Greg, a medical student Philadelphia and I am an avid follower of the Yankees farm system. Luckily, right around the time when I became interested about two years ago, the minor league system became much more intriguing. Guys like Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, and the since departed Austin Jackson were making a splash.

Now, they are making further strides with their farm system, as more bigtime prospects such as Manny Banuelos and the local fireballer Dellin Betances have made their way through the ranks. Players like Gary "the Sanchize" Sanchez and Slade Heathcott are also in the pipeline. It has become both exciting and fun to follow the system, and I have become a huge fan of all of the above listed players.

This blog intends to document the progress, as well as debate the merits and shortcomings of players in the Yankees minor league system. Feel free to comment on any of the posts I make, as I welcome followers and people who would like to argue with my opinions or express agreement. My knowledge of the system, while better than the average Joe, is limited by the fact that I do not have many opportunities to see these guys play in person, and only have so much access to scouting information etc. In the end, I would like this to be a place where people can come and discuss topics related to the Yankees farm system, and have some questions answered, while also answering some of the questions that I may have for the general public.

I will start my blog with a hypothetical first pitch, which would be thrown by none other than my favorite Yankee that played during my 25 year lifetime, Bernie Williams.