My Yankees Super Sleeper Prospect

Super Sleeper of 2012. Image thanks to BeGreen90 on flickr

This time of year it seems as though the en vogue thing to do is to pick a prospect that few expect to have a good season and predict that they will do just that, placing themselves right on the prospect radar. Yes, it is time to pick a sleeper pick. Admittedly I am a bit late on this one, as everyone and their mother has already chosen Matt Tracy as their this year top 20 next year top 10 prospect. Ten days ago, before all of the ruckus about him, he probably would have been my choice as well. At this point, however, I would not label him a sleeper because so many people know about him, and most are expecting a big season from him. His sleeper status has taken a hit by what he has gained in notoriety. Others, such as Ben Gamel, Nik Turley, Tim Norton, Ramon Flores and Slade Heathcott have also gotten a lot of press.

For my pick, I am going to try to think even further outside the box for what I call my yankees super sleeper prospect. This kid wasn't even on my radar by the end of the season, as is evidenced by his absence on my Top 50 Prospects, but the more I read about him this offseason, the more I regretted that choice. He's already moved up to my top 30-35 (a rough estimate). Another season with improvement like last year and this guy will be on everyone's map, likely a top 20 selection. This pick will surprise even the most knowledgeable of prospect gurus, but then again that is what makes this guy a sleeper. My super sleeper of 2012 is...

Drum roll....  Daniel Lopez!

Now here's what you need to know about Daniel Lopez. Daniel just turned 20 this January, and he'll likely be starting off next season in Staten Island, unless something goes horribly wrong with one of the golden boy prospects that will start the season at Charleston. Then again he played 3 games at the end of 2011 in Charleston, and performed well, so it will be interesting to see what management decides to do with him. He's 6'2, weighing in at 175 lbs according to milb.com. He's from Santiago, Dominican Republic, and he throws and hits right handed.

The main tool that Lopez carries with him is his speed. This is why the Yankees signed him back in 2009. He sported a 60 yard dash of 6.2, and his game will continue to be built around that lightning speed. Since being drafted, Lopez has worked tirelessly to increase his strength and has seen his power numbers increase each season as a result. Thus far, the increase in strength and power has not effected his speed, if anything the opposite if you go by stolen bases. Let's make one thing clear though, Lopez will never be accused of being a power hitter.

His stats won't necessarily jump out at you, but the trends are important to consider. As a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League, he hit .259/.394/.370 in 18 games. He had 2 triples, no homeruns, and 2 stolen bases in 54 at bats. Limited sample size, but the patience is what jumps out at me in his first professional season. In 2010, he improved upon his average and slugging with a .293/.382/.385 triple slash in 70 games. This time he hit 10 doubles, 6 triples, and 1 homerun, stealing 17 bases and being caught stealing 10 times. Not the best rate, but at least he was more aggressive, and his power numbers were better, even if slightly. Lopez's true breakout season, at least thus far in his career, was in 2011 at the age of 19. He started again in the DSL, but only lasted 11 games as he tore through the pitching to the tune of a .424 average. At this point he was promoted to the GCL Yankees, where he continued his torrid play. At the end of the season he got to play 3 games in Charleston. He played extremely well in those 3 games, but alas small sample sizes prevent me from drawing any conclusions from that data. All in all, 2011 saw him hit for a triple slash of .327/.413/.490 over 61 games across three levels. He increased his power numbers with 11 doubles, 7 triples, and 3 homeruns. He stole 27 bases and was caught just 3 times. His OPS was .904.

Reports would indicate he is a strong defender with an average arm and excellent speed and route taking.

Better yet, as gaudy as these numbers may seem, he flew almost completely under the radar in 2011 because of a star studded class of players in the GCL. Reports indicate that Lopez is an extremely hard worker, and spends countless hours lifting and in the cages. So far, this hard work has payed real dividends, and given his athleticism I will not be among those in the blogosphere who ignore this kid.

As far as his projection goes, his speed, patience, and still young age will allow him to have a high floor. I believe he will be on a 25 man roster at some point in his career, and barring injury I am relatively confident about that. His ceiling is that of a 15 HR, 50 SB center fielder, although the 15 homeruns seems pretty generous at this point. Remember though, he has a projectable frame at 6'2 and still has lots of room to fill out at just 175 lbs. We are talking about ceiling here, which means that maximum potential he could ever reach, so I'm allowed to be lofty. He's gotten progressively better every season in every way, getting more powerful, hitting for a higher average, becoming more patient, and reading pitchers better. I see no reason why this trend will not continue as long as he continues to put the work in during the offseason. I understand that getting excited over GCL numbers presents a ton of problems, however this is why he is a sleeper.

 Thus, Daniel Lopez is my super sleeper pick for 2012.

Movers and Shakers: Promotions/demotions in the Yankees minors

 Sorry Ivan Nova, you've got a right to be a big annoyed with your demotion, but it'll be good for you in the long run dude... image thanks to espn.com

AAA

Shaeffer Hall was called up to AAA for 1 start. He did a nice job. Given that it was a spot start, I don't think it matters whether he deserved the temporary promotion or not, but he has in fact done a good job for AA this season.

Buddy Carlyle was outrighted to AAA SWB. This is really not news. Sorry.

Ivan Nova was optioned to AAA SWB due to the return of Phil Hughes. He did a great job in the big leagues. If I had it my way, Freddy Garcia would have gone to the bullpen, but Nova will have the chance to become more than a 2 pitch guy if he can work on his change-up while in SWB.

Kevin Whelan also optioned to AAA. He's injured anyway, but has done a great job in SWB this season. He deserved the promotion to the majors, but belongs in the minors when he returns from the injury.

Chris Dickerson also demoted to AAA.

AA

F Hernandez (NOT Felix) was released. Not surprising since he is garbage.

Ryan Pope was sent to AA Trenton from SWB. He was struggling a bit there, maybe he can reinvigorate himself at the level where he originally found himself as a relief pitcher.

Chase Whitley was promoted to AA. He's done a decent job so far. Had a rough first outing, but has done well since then (4.26 ERA, 6 K in 6.1 IP).

Josh Romanski to AA. The bromance as I call him, he has no runs and 3 K in 3.1 IP. Considering we got him for literally nothing, he is turning into a really solid relief prospect.

Rob Lyerly (R-Ly) was also promoted to AA. He really deserved it. I have been preaching all year long about this guy's ability to make contact. If he starts gaining some power, he will be a dangerous hitter. He has proven that he deserved the promotion so far. .305/.359/.783, 1 HR, 9 RBI in 15 g.

High A Tampa

Daniel Burawa was promoted to High A. In limited action he has performed poorly. 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K. Honestly didn't feel he was ready for High A. In Low A Charleston, he had a 3.64 ERA and 35 K in 44.2 IP. That's good but in my opinion that's end of the season promotion good, not midseason promotion good. We'll see how he adjusts the rest of the season, it's a small sample size in High A so far.

Mike Gipson was also promoted to High A. He's been injured all season, but was listed on Low A Charleston at the beginning of the year, so this is a promotion. Don't have much to say about this except that he was good in Staten Island last season and I've been excited to see how he does all season.

Mikey O'brien also came from Charleston. He pitched great there, 68 K in 72.1 IP and a 3.2 ERA. He had a shaky first start, but since then has been great after the promotion. Definitely deserved this.

Nik Turley is another former River Dog, and this promotion has been a long time coming. He's been beastly in Low A, easily their best pitcher. He had a rough first start, but that's to be expected with a promotion.

Kramer Sneed, left handed relief pitcher. This promotion is one that I didn't understand, and so far I've been proven right. Sneed had a 4.18 ERA in Low A. He is left handed though, and stikes out more than 1/IP, so I guess the old addage, "he's left handed and he has a pulse," is accurate in this scenario.

JR Murphy, the catcher. I can't say enough about how much this kid deserved to be promoted. He was raking in Charleston, and outplaying Gary Sanchez at that level. He's young and he's got a sweet left handed swing. Yet another catcher to look out for in our system. With Gary Sanchez's fall from grace this season, he has eased that blow a little bit. He's struggled out of the gait, but seems to be easing into his role and improving every day, which is what you like to see.

Kyle Roller also deserved the promotion. They picked him for his bat, and he's done nothing but hit since he arrived here. He's got power, and should continue to move quickly through the organization at least until he starts seeing some real quality pitchers in AA. From there, anything can happen. He's played serviceably since arriving in Tampa (.250), but he'll have to continue to improve at this level.

Rob Segedin is another power hitting corner IF who deserved a promotion. I've had him and Roller paired together as similar players since the beginning of the season, and they have played very similarly. Segedin deserved his promotion, but has started off slow (.196) since his promotion. He's got some work to do.

Finally, Slade Heathcott earned a promotion to High A as well. Unfortunately, he has only played in 1 g since arriving due to injuries, however that game was an epic one for him. He was 3/5 with a HR and 2 R. There was speculation that he was bored in Charleston, but I have my doubts. I'm looking forward to his return.

Low A Charleston

Mark Montgomery made the quick move from Staten Island. So far he's shown why. So far he has made all but 2 of his outs by strikeout. He has 3 IP, and 9 K. Actually had 5 K in his first inning. I'd say he deserved a promotion, because he must be absolutely blowing batters away.

Kyle Higashioka moved in the wrong direction, going from High A to Charleston. The funny thing is, people have been talking about how good this kid is for about 3 years now, and I've never been impressed since he has proven over and over that he can't hit. Each year, however, he is promoted. Here's the funny part, he recently had really started to swing the bat well at High A Tampa, hitting a couple of HR in the week before the demotion, and hitting so well to the point that I actually feel he didn't deserve the demotion. Either way, he's in Charleston now, and has continued to hit better than he ever has before in his career (.279, 1 HR, 5 RBI). I actually feel bad for this kid, but the bottom line is that if he continues to hit, he will change minds. Just look at JR Murphy.

Now for the snubs. Who should have been promoted that wasn't? Or at least should be promoted soon. First of all, Dellin Betances should be promoted soon. He's very close. His main issue is control, but with the way that he has dominated AA batters, it hasn't mattered. There's no reason he can't work on that control in AAA. As for Austin Romine, I'm not saying he should be promoted, but he would be in AAA in any other system right now. I'm okay with it because Montero is a stud, but this kid has got to be getting bored there even though his playing quite well still. I still maintain that Raymond Kruml should have been promoted instead of Austin Krum to AAA. He's got better speed, and he's a better hitter. He has 29 SB already. If nothing else, he'd probably be great to have in the majors as a pinch runner in September. 

You might say that Zoilo Almonte should have been promoted to AA. I think we should give him time. He struggled a bit when he was promoted to High A in the middle of last season, decreasing his prospect stock. I say let him improve his stock in High A, this way he could be used as trade fodder this off-season or if nothing else build up some confidence. Increased prospect stock is never a bad thing. Jairo Heredia has been phenomenal, but only recently. He's another I'm glad they kept down because he has traditionally struggled with promotions. Let him get a true grasp on High A before giving him a new challenge. Ryan Flannery is the one snub at this level I disagree with. The guy has slowly moved up one level a year, each year dominating the level he's at. He's not getting any younger and yet there doesn't seem to be any sense of urgency in promoting him. Based on his picture he looks a bit obese, but hell, if you drafted him, then you thought he had something at some point. All he's done is prove that he can get guys out since he came here, I say give him a mid-season promotion for once in his career. Finally, I am not seeing any obvious snubs in Charleston, but please correct me if I'm wrong.

Overall, I think the Yankees did a good job evaluating who deserved a promotion and who didn't. I think there were a couple of mistakes as far as guys who didn't deserve a promotion, and a few where they probably should be promoted soon or should have already received that recognition. In the end, they will get their chance eventually.

YEEP Nightly Summary

Image: Nik Turley, tonights Evil EM Vee P. Picture thanks to gothambaseball.com
AAA SWB
Jesus Montero: 1/4 with 1 k. Montero's whole season has been a big 1/4 with 1 k so far. Doing just enough to get by but nothing to impress.
Brandon Laird: 1/4 with 1k. It feels like he's cooled off, but he's still 11 for his last 37 with 2 HR, good for a .297 average.
DJ Mitchell: 6 IP 2 ER 4 k, 1 BB. Another quality start, I hope he gets a September call-up. He deserves it for what he's done this year. All he has to do now is finish strong like he did last season.
George Kontos: 1 IP, 2 k, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB. Making a strong bid for that open relief spot.
R Flores: 1.2 IP 1 BB 1 k, 0 H, 0 ER. Making a strong bid for that LOOGY spot.

AA Trenton
CoJo: 0/3 2 BB 1 k. Could be worse
BRomine (because he's my bro): 2/5  2b, 1 RBI, 1 k. Really putting his hitting together this season. I love it when my predictions actually come true (rare as that may be). 14 for last 41 with 3 2B and 4 BB (.366/.422/.439/.861)
RLy (Rob Lyerly): 1/4 with 1 r. He's adjusted really nicely and quickly to AA pitching, much like DeeMack did. It's just a 1/4 night, but he's put together some good games already.
DeeMack: 2/4 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 r. Another guy who's made the necessary adjustments. After initial adjustment period, he's 7/13 with 2 HR, nice work Mack Daddy.
Craig Heyer: 7 IP 2 ER, 5 H, 2 k. Let up 2 in the first inning. All of a sudden you blink and Heyer has put together yet another good start. I've said this before, but... this year's Lance Pendleton?
Chase Whitley: 2 ER in 2 IP 2 k, 2 bb, 3 H. Jitters?

High A Tampa
Honest Abe (Almonte): 2/4 3 r. 6 for his last 17. Has Abe finally found his stroke?
Walt Ibarra: 1/5 2 r, 3B, RBI, k, SB. Nice season so far, good to see the SB, he needs more of those if he wants to advance.
Boilin Zoilo (Almonte): 1/4 2 RBI, 2 K. Cooling off a bit. One more hot streak and he might be officially on the prospect map.
K-Roll (Kyle Roller): 2/5 1 HR, 1 k. Nice day for Kyle, he's showing why I think he's a better hitter than Seggy.
Seggy (Rob Segedin): 0/4 2 k. Just .185 since the promotion, but free pass for adjustment purposes.
KeFla (or K-Flann, which is better? Kevin Flannery)- 1 IP, 1 k, zeros, 1.57 ERA. He's the only one I care to follow who pitched today. He deserves a promotion. I like this dude because all he's ever done is produce results. AA will be his big test.

Low A Charleston
Eduardo Sosa: 1/5 3B, 2 k 2 RBI. .306 average in limited action, but this is what he does. The triple reflects his speed, which seems to be his major plus attribute.
Ray-Flo (Ramon Flores): 0/3 1 k. He's ice cold. .143 in last 10 g spanning 35 at bats. 143 means I love you, maybe that means it's time for him to break out of that slump.
Sanchize (Gary Sanchez): 0/3, 1 r, 1 BB. Still .294 with 2 HR in last 10 g.
Higgy (Kyle Higashioka): 2/3, 2B, 1 r, 1 BB, 1k. Continues to hit well despite being demoted. He didn't deserve it this season, but it's tough to justify having him in high A over JR Murphy, because Murphy earned his way there as far as his bat goes, while Higgy earned his way there with defense. Unfortunately, defense can only get you a backup catching job in the majors, so Higgy needs to keep hitting to restore his prospect status. I sure hope he does.
Nik "the slick" Turley: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 k. What a performance! Has been even more dominant his last 10 starts (1.77 ERA, .213 BA against than his first 5. Unfortunately, he's already 10 IP over last years total, so a promotion may not be very likely at this point. It's okay, he's still just 21.
DaBraw (Daniel Burawa): 3.0 IP, 1 k, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 ER. He needed an outing like this. The last 10 outings have been rough on him.

SS low a Staten Island
Mad Mase (or Mad Willy, Mason Williams)- 2/3 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 CS. Spectacular start to his career. Keep it up Mase. I'm not following Culver until he does something deserving of being followed, same goes for Bubba Gumbs Shrimp.
Wetherell: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 k. Not bad.
Monte Python (Montgomery): 1 IP, 3 k. BEAST.